In my latest blog post, I compared the OPTA Supercomputer’s predictions with those of experienced football analysts, and the results were surprising. On average, the supercomputer performed better than the analysts. As a passionate Premier League fan, I then developed an AI model, inspired by the OPTA model, to make some predictions ahead of the 2024/25 Premier League season.
To build my AI model, I used data from every game in the 2023/2024 Premier League season to predict outcomes for the 2024/2025 season. I included information on whether teams won, lost, or drew, along with stats like expected goals (xG), possession, shots, shots on target, free kicks, penalties, attendance, and whether the game was home or away. This way, the model can make better predictions by considering various aspects of past games.
The AI model used here is the RandomForestClassifier and was chosen because it effectively handles a variety of complex features. It can analyze how different factors, like expected goals and possession, impact match results. This model is good at figuring out which factors are most important for making accurate predictions. It’s commonly used in sports predictions for its reliability and ability to manage detailed data.
Once my RandomForestClassifier model was trained, I used it to simulate the entire 2024/2025 Premier League season and predict the final standings. In cases where teams had the same number of points, the rankings were determined by goal difference. If the goal differences were also identical, the team with the most goals scored was placed higher.
Now, let’s review the model’s predictions. The final standings revealed some surprising results and unexpected outcomes!
The predictions reveal some surprising outcomes: Manchester United is forecasted to finish 11th, while Aston Villa is projected to secure 4th place once again, earning a Champions League spot for another season. Meanwhile, Bournemouth and Fulham, who had strong performances last year, are predicted to be relegated. This season could feature a thrilling title race, with just one point projected to separate Manchester City, predicted to finish 1st, from Liverpool, in 2nd place under their new manager Arne Slot. The battle for the top 4 will also be intense, with Aston Villa, Newcastle, Tottenham, and Chelsea vying for the 4th spot, but Aston Villa is predicted to claim it once again. Another surprising outcome is that Leicester City, considered favorites for relegation, is predicted to survive in the Premier League and finish 15th.
Personally, I find the predictions both plausible and exciting, and they align closely with my own forecasts for the season. However, I believe Manchester United is likely to finish much higher than 11th, particularly with their recent signing of Leny Yoro. Additionally, I expect Tottenham and Chelsea to outperform Aston Villa and Newcastle, finishing above them in the standings.
With these predictions for the 2024/2025 Premier League season, I can’t wait to see how the models’ predictions stack up against the actual final standings. Comparing the predicted results to the real outcomes will reveal how accurate the model was and just how well it did in predicting the upcoming season!
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References:
English Premier League matches 2023/2024 season. (2024, June 14). Kaggle. https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/mertbayraktar/english-premier-league-matches-20232024-season
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